Step 1: Invite participants to work in groups and think about and write down in the provided table what could potentially happen in the future (within the timeframe of the context of the work you are doing) concerning the following aspects:
- Society: population trends, migration patterns, expected COVID-19 impact
- Technology: new available technologies, new applications
- Environment: climate change, vulnerabilities, changes in ecosystems
- Economy: changes in economic sectors, reliance on certain products/imports
- Politics: stability, elections, conflicts
Step 2: Ask groups to evaluate the likelihood and potential consequences of the scenarios described for each aspect above using the references provided in the table.
Step 3: Request groups to use the challenges and opportunities identified in the original brainstorming exercise* and reflect on how the most likely scenarios can affect them, positively or negatively, or/and if any new challenges or opportunities arise.
For a more detailed and quantitative exercise on exploring future scenarios, refer to the “Scenario Planning” tool from the Toolkit for a Resilient Recovery (reference below).